Historical Signals in Bitcoin Price: What is the New Bull Run on the Brink Of?

The price of Bitcoin has exceeded the $111,000 level, drawing attention. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant activity with this strong rise, while on-chain data is reminiscent of past major bull cycles.

Starting the week on an optimistic note, the cryptocurrency market reawakened as Bitcoin surpassed the $111,000 mark. Particularly encouraging economic data from China, record increases in the Japanese stock market, and the weakening of the dollar index have directed investors towards riskier assets. With these macro supportive factors, the price of Bitcoin has shown a 3.7 percent increase in the last 24 hours.

However, the most striking development is the activity in on-chain data. The analytic platform Alphractal emphasized that the sharp decline in Bitcoin's RVT ratio (Realized Value to Transaction) is observed just before past bull cycles. The RVT ratio indicates that Bitcoin is not only held but also actively transferred and accumulated. This situation can be considered a sign that the market has entered an accumulation phase.

Historically, similar RVT declines have been observed around the beginning of 2020 and during the 2016 halving period, and these periods opened the door to significant Bitcoin bull rallies. Experts state that the current situation bears similarities to these past periods and that investors' accumulation behavior has increased.

Minor winds also support this bull run. With Sanae Takaichi coming to power in Japan, it is anticipated that Abenomics policies will make a comeback. This situation could lead to increased values for risky assets, along with the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will make two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. This may contribute to the weakening of the dollar index and allow Bitcoin to regain strength.

In an environment reminiscent of past bull cycles, both on-chain data and the macroeconomic situation are creating a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin that has not been seen for a long time. Among the points that investors should carefully watch is the potential for a new bull run should the $115,000 level be surpassed.