Bitcoin Price Calm, Risks High: Institutional Signals

Glassnode data reveals that the recent stable trend in Bitcoin (BTC) prices is not supported by strong market backing. Year-end expectations remain fragile. While Bitcoin prices fluctuate in a sensitive range, investor behavior in the options market is sending mixed signals.

According to the latest data released by Glassnode, although investors have not completely abandoned the upside movement, there is no significant demand to strengthen this expectation. The majority of open positions in the options market are on the call side; in other words, investors continue to hold positions, albeit small, for a potential rise. However, the decline in trading volume over the past week indicates that the conviction behind this expectation is weakening.

Notably, the decrease in net premiums for call options with a strike price of 95 thousand dollars reveals that the market does not have a strong appetite for this level. Additionally, the drop in implied volatility across all maturities indicates that the market does not expect sharp price movements in the near term.

Among the most critical signals pointed out by Glassnode, the 25 delta skew ratio still being in the put region stands out. This situation is indicative of the market holding onto downside risks. Generally, such a structure is not observed before a strong upward move. Experts emphasize that the most crucial factor sustaining the current price level is the expected interest rate cut in December.

If there is a change in this expectation or if a more decisive action is taken, a rapid repricing process may occur both in the options market and spot prices. In conclusion, according to Glassnode data, the upside possibilities for Bitcoin are not completely gone, but the options market is lacking the strength to support this scenario.