Bitcoin Price is Declining, But Volatility Increase Continues.

In recent days, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating, drawing attention to the volatility in the markets. Especially volatility indicators suggest that investors may expect sharp price movements in the coming days. The volatility indicator for Bitcoin has reached its highest point in the last 2.5 months, rising once again.

According to Volmex data, the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) has surpassed 42%, reaching its highest level since the end of August, representing the four-week price fluctuations. This situation highlights traders' growing interest in increased volatility and the uncertainties regarding the market's direction. BVIV saw an increase parallel to the rise in Bitcoin's price at the beginning of October. Although Bitcoin's price fell back from its record high of over $126,000 at the beginning of the week, this volatility increase continued.

Looking at historical data, October tends to show an increase in Bitcoin volatility. CoinDesk Research data reveals that a similar volatility increase was observed during this period in both 2023 and 2024. Long-term forecasts suggest that the volatility outlook for 2025 will resemble that of 2023, with the Implied Volatility (IV) rate rising from over 40% to above 60% in the second half of October of that year. Coinglass data indicates that Bitcoin has gained an average of 6% weekly during the second half of October, and historically, November has been the strongest period.

Analysts note that the recent spikes in volatility have generally resulted from price pullbacks. This situation creates an inverse correlation effect reflecting classic Wall Street dynamics. Still, it's noted that with Bitcoin's maturation over an extended timeframe, the rate of price increases and levels of volatility have decreased in the long term. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $121,000, and the market anticipates that volatility will remain high for a while longer in the coming days.