Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? Critical Levels and Metrics

In recent days, the price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) have caught the attention of investors. The decrease in the profitable supply ratio of the cryptocurrency is increasing the possibility of a transition to a widespread bear cycle under current market conditions. CryptoQuant analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin is entering a critical transition phase by evaluating this situation through on-chain data.

The primary indicator the analyst is focusing on is known as 'Supply in Profit'. This metric measures what percentage of the circulating Bitcoin supply is in profit, and it is used historically to understand the current phase of the market. Generally, levels above 80% indicate the exuberance phase of a bull market, levels between 55% and 80% indicate a transition phase, and values below 55% signal a bear market and bottom formation.

According to current data, the Supply in Profit ratio is currently at 68.85%. While this value indicates that Bitcoin is in the transition zone, the most striking aspect is that this metric has been in a downward trend since October 2025. This situation not only signifies a short-term pullback but is also seen as a sign of investor fatigue in the later stages of the cycle.

CryptoQuant analysts state that the dynamics within the market are increasingly weakening and that growing interest in geopolitical risks and safe-haven assets is putting pressure on risky assets like Bitcoin. The critical point here is not only that the Supply in Profit ratio remains below 80%, but also how long it stays at this level. If the Bitcoin price maintains a sideways trend in a tight band while the metric stabilizes around 70%, past cycles strengthen the likelihood of a transition to a bear market. On the other hand, if the indicator shifts back to a positive slope and rebounds above the 75% to 80% band, it does not completely eliminate the likelihood of the current cycle extending.

At this stage, the CryptoQuant analyst emphasizes that it would be healthier to acknowledge that the market is in an early transitional phase out of the bull cycle rather than making definitive directional predictions. Therefore, it becomes essential for investors to position themselves cautiously and adopt disciplined risk management strategies.