Will Bitcoin test the $127,000 level?

In recent days, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to stay close to its historical peak range. However, it is noteworthy that the retail investor demand, which has triggered such movements in past cycles, has not yet emerged. Bitcoin continues to maintain its position above $90,000 without undergoing a sharp correction following the historical peak seen at $127,000. In this context, from a cyclical perspective, this level is relatively close to the all-time high (ATH) and indicates a strong price regime.

However, on-chain data shows that this price behavior is not supported by the usual bull dynamics. The metric measuring the 30-day change in retail investor demand, represented by transfers between $0 and $10,000, is currently distinctly in the negative region according to data compiled by CryptoQuant. In previous bull cycles, sharp rises and new peaks in Bitcoin were characterized by strong positive spikes in this indicator.

According to IT Tech, the current situation indicates that Bitcoin has yet to make the retail-supported price spike it "needs" to achieve. Despite the price holding in high regions, the weakness of retail demand suggests that the rally is primarily driven by institutional investors and large-scale players. This situation has led to different interpretations among investors.

According to the first scenario, the fact that retail investors have not yet come into play suggests that the rally is not complete, and a stronger move capable of exceeding ATH levels is still possible in the future. In the other scenario, the risk arises that upward movements sustained without broad public support could remain fragile.

In summary, while Bitcoin has managed to stay strong in the post-ATH period, on-chain data shows that this movement is progressing differently from typical bull rallies. The most critical question regarding the next direction of the market remains clear: When will retail investors take center stage?