Is Bitcoin going down to 100,000 dollars?

Bitcoin Fails to Break Trend Resistance for the Third Time in a Short Period

Bitcoin’s recent crash marks the third instance where it has failed to achieve sustained gains above a critical trend line seen in 2017 and 2021. This situation raises the possibility of a deeper decline to $100,000 or lower levels.

It’s appropriate to recall a classic saying here: "Once, it’s an accident; twice, it’s a coincidence; three times, it’s a pattern." According to Omkar Godbole, a CoinDesk analyst and Certified Market Technician, this recurring failure indicates that the market is facing strong resistance and that the trend line has become a zone that defines the limits of bullish strength in this cycle.

CoinDesk had highlighted this trend line resistance a month ago and emphasized that the bulls had been unable to hold this level twice. The long wicks in the July, August, and October charts indicate fatigue among bulls above the trend line.

Despite the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram seen on monthly charts still being positive, it remains below the levels seen during the December-January surge when Bitcoin first surpassed the $100,000 mark. This indicates a weakening of upward momentum. MACD is a widely used indicator for identifying trend changes and trend strength.

The daily chart also presents a pessimistic picture. A rapid turnaround from the expanding channel resistance, combined with negative readings in both standard and long-term MACD histograms, suggests that the path of least resistance is downward. The long-term histogram smooths the signal using the 50 and 100 daily moving averages; this makes it more suitable for filtering short-term market noise.

When considering both the monthly and daily charts together, a decline below $100,000 appears possible. This situation represents a test at the lower boundary of the expanding triangle. During a downward movement, support may be provided at the $107,000 level by the 200-day simple moving average. Bulls need to break above the $121,800 level to reverse the downward trend.

As of the time this news was being prepared for publication, Bitcoin is trading at $114,800.