Barclays: Turkey's Inflation and Monetary Policy on Solid Foundations

Barclays' Confidence Message to the Turkish Economy

Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Christian Keller emphasized that the Turkish economy has performed better than expected in terms of growth. Keller stated that Turkey’s economic dynamism has exceeded general expectations.

Inflation Path and Central Bank Policies

Keller noted that the inflation reduction plan implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is ongoing. "We expect inflation to continuously decrease this year. The Central Bank only changes interest rates when inflation falls or can be clearly predicted to do so. This situation provides confidence to investors, making investments attractive," he said.

Regaining Trust

Keller emphasized the importance of continuing the stability program and reliability. "The Central Bank is doing a good job of regaining its credibility," he stated. Highlighting that Turkey is in a strong position amid uncertainties, Keller pointed out that Turkey is not at the center of geopolitical concerns like Europe, China, or Russia.

Trump's Speech in Davos and Relationships

Keller remarked that U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming speech in Davos would have an impact on global economic balances. He predicted that Trump would create a strong economic picture by inviting foreign investors to the U.S. Additionally, he stated that Trump's stance on tariffs could further complicate relations with Europe.

Greenland Tension and Europe's Response

Keller drew attention to the Greenland tension between the U.S. and Europe. He recalled that Europe was considering imposing tariffs on U.S. products, stating, "This could be an opportunity for Europe to renew its trade policies." Given that Europe’s plan to implement a 90 billion dollar tax could have negative consequences on exports, how unified policies will be shaped remains to be seen.