Ark Invest's target for Bitcoin is 1.5 million dollars.

The Bitcoin market has recently drawn attention not so much for its short-term price movements but for the changing investor profile behind the scenes. Ark Invest notes that there is a balance formed by institutional purchases of Bitcoin and early investor sell-offs throughout 2025, asserting that this scenario points to a long-term structural transformation beyond 2026.

According to David Puell, a research director at Ark Invest, the year 2025 became a period where two powerful trends confronted each other. On one side was the institutional demand coming from ETFs and digital asset treasury companies, while on the other side were the profit-taking actions of early investors who have held Bitcoin for over a decade. Puell emphasized that during bull markets, older investors tend to sell more aggressively as they approach peaks, while during bear markets, the inclination to hold increases. He pointed out that the price behavior in 2025 was largely shaped by the struggle between these two forces.

Ark Invest does not retreat from its long-term valuation model. The firm's projections for 2030 indicate that the bear scenario points to around $300,000, the base scenario to $710,000, and the bull scenario to $1.5 million. According to Puell, in the bear and base scenarios, Bitcoin's role as digital gold predominates, while in the bull scenario, institutional investments become decisive. One of the critical factors supporting this model is the locked supply structure. On-chain data shows that approximately 36% of the total supply has been effectively withdrawn from circulation by long-term investors. This situation emerges as a structural factor that limits selling pressure.

Puell also noted that Bitcoin's volatility has historically dropped to lower levels. While sharp pullbacks during bull markets were considered normal in previous cycles, corrections have been more limited in recent years, indicating a change in risk perception. According to Ark Invest, this creates a foundation that facilitates a more cautious and institutional approach to Bitcoin. The firm emphasizes that transitioning Bitcoin into an asset with lower volatility held by institutions is as important as the price itself, focusing on a five-year perspective rather than short-term price targets.