Consumer Inflation Expectations Increased in the U.S.

US Federal Reserve September Consumer Expectations Report

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the results of the Consumer Expectations Survey for September.

The survey, conducted with approximately 1300 households, shows a significant increase in consumer inflation expectations. The short-term median inflation expectation for the next 12 months has risen by 0.2 points to 3.4%.

Medium and Long-Term Inflation Expectations

While the medium-term inflation expectation remains stable at 3%, the long-term inflation expectation has increased from 2.9% to 3%. This rise is raising consumers' fears about future inflation.

Employment Expectations Situation

Although a slight recovery has been observed in job-seeking expectations, overall labor market expectations continue to deteriorate. The expectation for household income remains at 2.9%, while the anticipated increase in spending has decreased by 0.3 points to 4.7%.

Cost Increase Expectations Reach Peak

Expectations for costs have reached their highest levels since 2023, with food prices recorded at 5.8%. The expected increases in other costs are as follows:

• Gasoline: 4.2%
• Healthcare services: 9.3%
• Rent: 7%
• University education: 7%

US Consumer Price Index Developments

In the US, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual increase of 2.9% in August. The CPI data for September is expected to be released next week; however, if the federal government remains shut down, the publication of these data is not anticipated.