September 29 Market Agenda: Gold, Dollar and BIST100 Analysis

September 29 Market Agenda

In today's market monitoring, significant sell-offs were observed on Wall Street following Fed Chair Powell's statements that "asset prices are quite high." The slowdown in the labor market and ongoing price pressures suggest that the Fed needs to take cautious steps regarding monetary policy. This indicates that the volatile trend in the markets will continue.

US Economy and Market Developments

Recently released PCE data shows the economy performing stronger than expected. Household spending is also running above forecasts. The US 10-year bond yield approaching 4.20% and the dollar's strengthening trend are noteworthy.

Latest Situation in the Energy Market

Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia decided to restrict fuel exports until the end of the year. Despite this, Brent crude is trading at $68.40, despite calls for increased supply. Crude oil inventories in the US are reported to have decreased by 600,000 barrels. OPEC+'s efforts to increase production fall short of planned levels as they are not met with existing demand.

Gold and Investor Behavior

Despite a strengthening dollar index and rising bond yields, gold, seen as a safe haven, rose to $3,805. In the previous scenario, declines in the dollar index and expectations of interest rate cuts positively impacted gold prices. However, in the current situation, strong demand supports the rise in gold prices. The US non-farm payroll data, expected to be released last week, will be a decisive factor in the direction of gold prices.

BIST100 and Local Market Developments

Last week, BIST100, which showed an increase with expectations of an Erdoğan-Trump meeting, diverged from global stock exchanges on Friday, falling by 1.99% to 11,151 points. Trump's calls for "ending gas purchases from Russia" negatively affected energy and industrial stocks. Following the hawkish statements made by CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, selling pressure was also observed in bank and holding company stocks.

Levels to Watch

For BIST100, the following support levels have been determined as 11,000 and 10,800. For a renewed upward momentum in the index, sustained levels above 11,200 are required. The VIOP morning session started with a 0.29% decrease. This Friday, September inflation data will be announced, and these figures will be closely monitored in the markets.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end inflation expectation to 29%, while updating its policy rate forecast for 2025 to 37%. This week's data will be crucial for the CBRT's interest rate decision on October 23. Abroad, non-farm payrolls from the US, ADP private sector data, and PMI/rebounding data from the Eurozone will be monitored.

Technically Strong Stocks

• Batısöke Çimento (BSOKE)
• Graınturk Holding (GRTHO)

The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice.