"Risks That Will Affect the Global Economy in 2026: Artificial Intelligence and Debts"

The Global Economy's New Year: The AI Bubble and Debt Risks

As we enter the year 2026, the global economy faces significant risks. At the forefront of these risks are the 'artificial intelligence bubble', high public and private sector debts, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Slowing Inflation and Loose Monetary Policies

Many countries struggled with loosening monetary policies, falling inflation, and rising protectionist trade policies in 2025. In 2026, inflation is expected to decrease, which will influence policy interest rates.

The AI Bubble and Economic Impacts

While the increase in artificial intelligence investments may point to potential positive effects, analysts are warning about the uncertainties in the financial transformation brought by AI. Indeed, the construction and investments that affected the U.S. growth by 1% in 2025 could push the labor market into recession if they spill over into this year.

Global Debts at Record Levels

According to the Global Debt Monitor report by the Institute of International Finance, total global debt reached approximately $346 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, accounting for %310 of global GDP. This debt increase indicates a serious debt crisis in both developed and developing countries.

Fragility in U.S.-China Relations

The increasing tensions between the U.S. and China are leading to significant issues, particularly in the supply of rare earth elements. Although achieving a tariff truce may contribute to stability through customs duties and export controls during much of 2026, this situation still carries fragility.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

With the rise in geopolitical risks, oil prices are expected to increase. U.S. sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are complicating this further. Thus, a decrease in the expected oversupply of Brent oil in 2026 may be on the horizon.

Deepening Issues in China's Real Estate Market

The real estate sector in China is on the verge of a serious crisis due to falling prices and high stock levels. The debts and default concerns of giants such as China Vanke are complicating this situation even further.

Conclusion: Future Threats to the Global Economy

Global economic risks encompass a wide range, from artificial intelligence investments to debt levels; geopolitical tensions to trade policies. This situation could complicate the sustainable growth targets for the U.S., China, and other developed economies.