"In 2026, smartphone demand will decline, Apple will make a big play."

A Decline in the Smartphone Market Expected by 2026

Fubon Research evaluations suggest that global demand for smartphones is anticipated to shrink again in 2026. Analyst Arthur Liao forecasts that worldwide smartphone shipments will drop to 1.2 billion units in 2026, representing a 4% annual decline.

Liao notes that smartphone shipments in China are expected to decrease to 275 million units (a 3% annual decline), while iPhone shipments are projected to decline to 234 million units (a 4% annual drop).

Additionally, rising component costs are expected to put pressure on the market next year. Fubon states that DRAM contract prices have increased by over 75% compared to the Q4 2024, and overall material costs for smartphones are projected to rise by approximately 5-7% in 2026.

Despite this negative outlook, Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be a significant market trigger. Fubon believes that the material costs of the device, especially for the panel, hinge, and lightweight components, will push pricing to the upper limits of market expectations.

Rumors suggest a price range of $2,000 to $2,500, while Fubon Research predicts the iPhone price will be $2,399. This estimate is based on supply chain analysis and Apple's profit margin needs.

It is anticipated that demand will largely depend on this pricing; however, Fubon remains optimistic. They predict that total sales of Apple's foldable iPhones will reach 15.4 million units over their lifecycle, with 5.4 million units expected to be sold in 2026.

Moreover, Apple is preparing notable camera updates for 2026. Fubon expects the iPhone 18 series to likely be equipped with a "variable aperture lens" supplied exclusively by Largan.

Overall, while shipments may weaken, Fubon emphasizes that foldable phones will continue to be the "only light source" in the mobile market in 2026.