"In 2026, smartphone demand will decrease, and Apple will make a big move."

Drops in the Smartphone Market Expected with 2026

Fubon Research forecasts that global smartphone demand will contract again in 2026. Analyst Arthur Liao predicts that smartphone shipments worldwide will decline to 1.2 billion units in 2026, reflecting a 4% annual decrease.

In his analysis, Liao states that smartphone shipments in China are expected to drop to 275 million units (a 3% annual decline), while iPhone shipments are anticipated to decrease to 234 million units (a 4% annual decline).

Additionally, rising component costs are expected to put pressure in the coming year. Fubon reports that DRAM contract prices have risen by over 75% compared to Q4 2024, forecasting that the total material cost for smartphones will increase by approximately 5-7% in 2026.

Despite this negative outlook, it is anticipated that Apple's first foldable iPhone will be a significant catalyst in the industry. Fubon believes that the material costs of the device, particularly for the panel, hinge, and lightweight components, will push pricing to the upper limit of market expectations.

According to rumors, the price range is expected to vary between $2,000 and $2,500, while Fubon Research predicts the iPhone price to be $2,399. This estimation is based on supply chain analysis and Apple's profit margin requirements.

It is anticipated that demand will largely depend on this pricing; however, Fubon remains optimistic. They predict that the total sales of Apple's foldable iPhones will reach 15.4 million units over their life cycle, with 5.4 million units expected in 2026.

Additionally, Apple is preparing noteworthy camera updates for 2026. Fubon expects that the iPhone 18 series will likely be equipped with a "variable aperture lens" supplied exclusively by Largan.

Overall, while shipments may weaken, Fubon emphasizes that foldable phones will continue to be the "only light source" in the mobile market in 2026.