2026 Markets: Global Risks and the Turkish Economy

Market Agenda and Analysis

We entered 2026 with an increase in geopolitical risks in global markets. Particularly, the operations of the USA regarding Venezuela and the situation of President Maduro are at the center of the international agenda. Statements made by President Trump concerning Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Iran, and Greenland indicate that the global order has become even more fragile.

Energy and Oil Prices

Despite Venezuela's high reserves, energy production capacity has been limited due to years of sanctions and weak infrastructure. The Trump administration has indicated that American oil companies may invest in Venezuela again. This situation holds potential for increasing global oil supply in the medium and long term. In the initial phase, limited pullbacks in oil prices are observed, while developments are expected to be linked to the political situation in Venezuela.

Macroeconomic Developments

The ISM manufacturing PMI figure released in the USA has dropped to 47.9 in December, which is considered a signal of a slowdown in economic activity. This outlook supports expectations that the Fed may have a shorter waiting period regarding interest rate cuts, having a positive effect on risk appetite. This week's employment data and inflation figures from China will be significant for global pricing.

Global Debt Dynamics

Data from the International Finance Institute shows that the global debt has reached 346 trillion dollars, raising discussions about the sustainability of debt, especially in developed countries. This situation stands out as an issue that investors should monitor closely.

Domestic Inflation and Borsa Istanbul

According to the inflation figures announced by TURKSTAT for December, the monthly inflation rate was realized at 0.89%, bringing the annual inflation down to 30.89%. This situation increases expectations for interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Borsa Istanbul showed an upward trend as a result of the inflation data, allowing the BIST 100 index to test its historical peaks.

Highlighted Stocks and Market Situation

Following recent developments, stocks such as Turkish Gold Enterprises (TRALT) and Şok Marketler Ticaret (SOKM) stand out as options strengthening technical outlooks. The general view indicates that a moderate inflation trend continues and the process of interest rate cuts will proceed.