Things to Watch Out for at the Market Opening in 2026

Initial Developments in Global Markets

Global markets started the new year in an environment influenced by macroeconomic data flow and geopolitical developments. US indices continue to maintain an upward trend ahead of critical employment data. Along with technology and health stocks, news from the CES fair regarding artificial intelligence and semiconductors led to strong pricing in chip and data storage companies.

Expectations in the US Economy

The Dow Jones index approaches the 50,000 mark, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pushing their historical peaks higher. However, the PMI service and composite indices announced in December indicate that the pace of growth is slowing down. Among the data that investors should carefully monitor are private sector employment from ADP in the US, the JOLTS job openings, and the ISM services index. These figures could affect perceptions of the labor market ahead of non-farm payrolls.

Uncertainty in Fed Policies

During a period when some Fed members advocate for a cautious approach, others indicate that more aggressive interest rate cuts could be on the table. Fed Governor Miran pointed out that the current policy is constraining the economy and that an interest rate cut exceeding 100 basis points could be possible within the year. This situation has created a fluctuating but limited outlook for the dollar index. In the bond market, upward attempts in interest rates do not seem to be lasting.

Geopolitical Developments and Energy Markets

Relations between the US and Venezuela are a significant part of the geopolitical agenda. Statements suggesting that the US might take steps to facilitate access to Venezuelan oil could lead to short-term price declines in energy markets, but may impact supply balance in the medium and long term. Rising geopolitical tensions support gold and silver prices, which are seen as safe havens, to remain at high levels.

BIST 100 on the Rise

The BIST 100 index made a strong start after finishing 2025 with a limited return of 14.6%. The December inflation data became a significant turning point in the markets. Monthly inflation remaining below expectations at 0.89% indicates a strengthening disinflation process. This situation reinforced the perception that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) might have more room for interest rate cuts and increased risk appetite in the stock market.

Short-Term Outlook and Investor Strategies

The BIST 100 index gained 6.8% in just three trading days of the year and pushed its historical peaks higher. Surpassing the 12,000 level strengthens the short-term upward trend, while the 11,800 level acts as support. The banking index also increased due to expectations of interest rate cuts. In the bond market, the benchmark bond yield has declined to 36.5%, and Turkey's 5-year CDS premium, fluctuating around 200 basis points, reflects the improvement in country risk perception.

Currency and Market Orientation

On the currency front, the upward trend of the Dollar/TL continues. The Euro/Dollar parity is fluctuating in the 1.17 – 1.18 range. Overall, improvements in the inflation outlook and expectations of interest rate cuts are determining factors in domestic markets.

Borsa Istanbul continues to perform strongly in 2026.