TCMB Increased Inflation Expectations: November Report Announced

Central Bank Updates Inflation Expectations

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has published the report of the Market Participants Survey for the month of November. The published data indicates that market participants are adopting a more cautious approach regarding inflation.

Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increased

According to the data, the market participants' inflation expectation for 12 months ahead has risen to 23.49 percent. This figure represents a decrease from the 24.26 percent recorded in the previous survey.

Long-Term Inflation Expectations

The expectation for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 24 months later was 17.36 percent in the previous survey period, while it has now occurred at 17.69 percent. Analysts evaluating this situation are drawing attention to the likelihood of inflation increasing in the upcoming period.

Year-End Expectations Increased

The participants' expectation for the year-end CPI has risen from 31.77 percent in the previous survey to 32.2 percent in this survey period. This increase has heightened concerns about inflationary pressures in the markets.

Interest Rate Expectations

The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 39.15 percent in the previous survey and has now risen to 39.35 percent in this period. Additionally, the CBRT's policy interest rate expectation for the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in December has been set at 38.28 percent.