Lightning: Progress and Protectionism Threats in the Turkish Economy

Important Statements from Minister of Treasury and Finance Şimşek

Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek delivered a speech titled "The Front Lines of the Economy: Trade Conflicts and New Global Competitions" at the TRT World Forum 2025 held in Istanbul. Şimşek emphasized that global uncertainty is being felt with historic intensity; however, he noted that the global economy remains resilient and market sentiment is still positive.

Challenges of the Global Economy

Şimşek stated that growth rates in the global economy have been lower compared to previous periods and outlined the challenges they face:

• Protectionism in global trade
• High global debt levels
• Aging population
• Potentially destructive effects of artificial intelligence
• Climate change
• Geopolitical tensions

Şimşek emphasized that protectionism has now become the new normal and stated that this trend is expected to continue in the long term.

Production Loss and the Permanence of Protectionism

Minister Şimşek noted that China's share in global manufacturing was less than 9% twenty years ago, while today it has risen above 30%. "If this trend continues, it is likely that this share could rise to 45%," he said. He also pointed out that the U.S. and the European Union have experienced significant losses in this process.

Turkey's Advantages

Şimşek stated that Turkey is relatively less vulnerable in this process, saying, "62% of our exports go to countries with which we have free trade agreements, which gives us an advantage." He also highlighted Turkey's strong position in services exports, mentioning that this year service trade will have a surplus of 65 billion dollars.

Emerging Opportunities in the Global Economy

Şimşek emphasized the importance of Turkey's investments in areas such as new technologies, renewable energy, and defense industry. "Turkey has the potential to be an important player in the green transition," he said, emphasizing the goal of creating more opportunities in these areas.

Progress in the Disinflation Program

The Minister provided information about the effects of the current disinflation program, stating that they aim for price stability and have made significant progress in reducing the current account deficit. Regarding Turkey's growth performance, he stated, "The average real growth rate over the last 20 years has been 5.4%."