Market Volatility: Dow in Pursuit of Records

Volatile Day in the Markets: Dow Rises

American stocks exhibited a mixed performance on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose by 0.7%, aiming for the record level reached on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) remained almost flat, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped by 0.6%, reversing earlier gains. This market movement followed a day of mixed trading in stocks.

On Wednesday, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged in early trading after the CEO presented an optimistic financial outlook regarding AI investments, with AMD stock price increasing by 10%. However, other major tech firms, including Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) experienced some corrections.

At the same time, hopes are rising for the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. A key vote in the House of Representatives is expected to take place around 19:00 ET this evening. If the bill supported by President Trump is approved, it could pave the way for the government to reopen.

Reopening the government may allow the release of delayed economic data caused by the shutdown. Important data such as the job report for September is expected to be released next week. Wall Street is currently waiting to access official data after having to rely on special data to gauge the Fed's next move on interest rates.

On this Wednesday, speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled. Stephen Miran, newly appointed by President Trump, and Christopher Waller, who is expected to be the next central bank president, are on the list. Focus is on hints regarding policy decisions at the Fed meeting in December; most predictions currently lean towards a 0.25% rate cut.

The earnings reporting season is continuing at a slower pace. Most S&P 500 companies have released their earnings reports. Cisco Systems (CSCO) results will be a key highlight before the market closes. Before the market opens, cryptocurrency company Circle (CRCL) reported success with an increase in quarterly profits alongside stablecoin growth, yet its stock price fell.

On Wednesday, chip stocks partially recovered from previous day's losses. Shares of Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM), and Broadcom (AVGO) edged higher. Marvell Technology (MRVL) showed an increase of 1.3%. AMD, following the CEO’s positive long-term financial outlook, led the group with an increase of more than 5%.

On Tuesday, AMD dropped by 2.7%; chip maker Broadcom decreased by 1.8%. Memory supplier Micron's shares fell by 4.8%, while Marvell lost 4.2%. Nvidia experienced an additional 1% drop on Wednesday, following a 3% loss the previous day.

Decline in Oil Prices

Oil prices fell on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) did not change its global oil demand forecast since October. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that oil and gas demand will not peak until 2030 and will continue to rise until 2050.

OPEC forecasts a daily oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels in 2026. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (CL=F) fell by 1.3%, reducing the barrel price to around $60. Brent crude oil prices are trading at around $64.

In the Wednesday report, the IEA noted that global oil and gas demand will continue to rise until 2050. By 2035, oil demand is expected to reach 105 million barrels per day, and by 2050, it is projected to reach 113 million barrels per day.

Previously, the IEA had predicted that oil and gas demand would peak in 2035; however, the slower adoption of green energy technologies and increases in sectors such as aviation and shipping from emerging markets have altered the global energy demand outlook.

Currently, the IEA forecasts an excess supply of 4 million barrels per day in 2026 due to the rising production from the OPEC+ cartel. However, sanctions imposed against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's largest oil producers, could tighten supply and complicate market predictions.

OPEC+ member countries decided in the November meeting to increase monthly production by 137,000 barrels for December; however, the cartel stated that it would not make any percentage changes in the first quarter of the year, considering the market's concerns over oversupply.

Economic data: MBA mortgage applications (week ending November 7)
Earnings calendar: Cisco Systems (CSCO), TransDigm (TDG), Manulife (MFC), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), ORIX Corporation (IX), Circle (CRCL), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS), Ascendis Pharma (ASND), On Holding (ONON), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), McGraw Hill (MH)