Things You Need to Know Before the Market Opens: November 12

Global Markets Display Cautious Optimism

This morning, the general atmosphere observed in global markets shows cautious optimism. Expectations that the government shutdown in the U.S., which has lasted over 40 days, will come to an end are increasing risk appetite. Democrats and Republicans in the Senate have reached a consensus on a temporary budget, and it is expected that the passage of the bill in the House of Representatives will reopen the federal government. President Trump has expressed his support for the process, and these developments have accelerated reaction purchases in stock indices.

Asia-Pacific and European Markets

The Asia-Pacific region displays a mixed outlook. The Japanese stock market has experienced a decline due to selling pressures related to SoftBank, while slight increases have been observed in the Chinese and South Korean indices. In European markets, the positive sentiment coming from the U.S. and the ZEW index exceeding expectations across the Eurozone created a buying trend. However, the ZEW Economic Sentiment index in Germany fell to 38.5 in November, presenting a result lower than expected.

Commodity and Currency Market Developments

Commodity pricing is showing a more balanced graph. Expectations of the reopening of the U.S. government have reduced safe-haven demand, causing gold to trade sideways at around $4,110 per ounce. Silver is trading at $51, while Brent crude oil finds buyers around the $65 level. The dollar index (DXY) is showing a slight increase at 99.60.

Volatile Day in Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul experienced a highly volatile day yesterday. The index started positively but encountered sharp selling pressure due to political uncertainties, closing the BIST 100 index down by 1.97% at 10,576 points. There was a significant selling pressure in banking, industrial, and energy stocks. However, BIMAS reported a net profit above expectations, making it the only stock in the BIST 30 to remain in the positive.

Data to be Monitored Today

Today, the global agenda will focus on Germany's CPI data and OPEC’s monthly oil report. In the U.S., the temporary budget vote in the House of Representatives will be closely watched. Additionally, it is expected that Turkey will report a $1.2 billion surplus in the current account balance for September. The speech of Finance and Treasury Minister Mehmet Şimşek at the S&P Global Turkey Conference will also be closely monitored by the markets.

Rising Trend in the Bond Market

In the bond market, there is a sense of rising interest rates. The benchmark bond yields have reached 40.04%, while the 10-year bond yield has reached 33.10%. Turkey's 5-year CDS premium has shown a decline in recent days, reaching a level of 241 basis points.

Conclusion

In the new day, reaction purchases may be observed as a search for balance. However, the reduction of uncertainties in the markets and the positive arrival of macro data are necessary.