


Recently, there has been a significant increase in the selling activity of Bitcoin (BTC) investors; this situation is negatively impacting the price. Long-term holders (LTH) sales, combined with the Bitcoin market's weakness in recent weeks, have caused it to lose its upward momentum.
The decline of Bitcoin price below 100 thousand dollars particularly indicates that the market is struggling to recover following the major liquidation wave experienced in October. Both the contraction in spot demand and the slowdown in stablecoin liquidity are exacerbating this pressure.
CryptoQuant data reveals that in the last 30 days, long-term investors have sold approximately 815 thousand BTC, marking the highest wave of sales since January 2024. Most of these sales have occurred close to price peaks, while the weakening spot demand during the same period has led to even lower price levels. The net Bitcoin amount exiting from ETFs, the decline in Coinbase premium into negative territory, and the contraction in demand indicators support the current situation.
In past cycles, such intense LTH selling has been absorbed by current demand; however, the lack of the same strength under the current market conditions is rendering the Bitcoin market fragile. While investors are primarily realizing profits during this process, the fact that net realized losses remain almost negligible indicates that capitulation has not yet occurred. According to CryptoQuant data, investors wrote down approximately 3 billion dollars in profit on November 7, signaling a high likelihood of sustained selling pressure in the short term.
The Bitcoin price is fluctuating around the technically significant 102 thousand dollars, which represents the 365-day moving average. This level stands out as a critical support area in the current cycle. Losing this average, which triggered the onset of the 2021-2022 bear market, could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.
The overall market outlook remains under pressure due to intense LTH selling, weak spot demand, and liquidity contraction. The critical threshold that will determine Bitcoin's direction will be whether the 365-day average can be maintained.
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